Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
