Everyday Killings in the nation Decline 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The mean figure of everyday killings monthly in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government figures. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that murder numbers could fail to signal improved national security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the least figure of homicides were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for estimating the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily killings was additionally an issue because it could hide days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas remarked.