Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
